Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 3836 · YYZ → MSP
departs 12:52 PM EDT · arrives 2:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at YYZ that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.