Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 3863 · MSP → FSD
departs 8:53 AM CT · arrives 10:03 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.