Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 3868 · MSP → YYZ
departs 8:48 AM CT · arrives 11:56 AM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at YYZ that day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.