Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
OO 3869 · DTW → ELM
departs 10:52 AM ET · arrives 12:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at ELM that day
↑
Other factors
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
ELM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.1 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.