Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3869 · DTW → ELM
departs 10:52 AM ET · arrives 12:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Mon 10/12 13%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 0 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ELM that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.06 in
ELM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 0 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.