Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3927
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 3927 · RAP → MSP
departs 6:48 AM MT · arrives 9:29 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 9%
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at RAP that day
↓
6am departures from RAP are usually not late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RAP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.