Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4034
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 4034 · DTW → SBN
departs 1:23 PM ET · arrives 2:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↑
1pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.