Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2133
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
PD 2133 · YTZ → EWR
departs 12:25 PM EDT · arrives 2:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at YTZ that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.