Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2133
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PD 2133 · YTZ → EWR
departs 12:13 PM EDT · arrives 2:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±7 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
YTZ is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.