Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2945
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
PD 2945 · YTZ → BOS
departs 1:35 PM EDT · arrives 3:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 30%
Sat 10/17 27%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±3 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
1pm departures from YTZ are usually not late
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.11 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.