PT 5923 · MHT → PHL

departs 2:58 PM ET · arrives 4:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at MHT that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MHT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.20 in

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5923 · MHT → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?