Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5923
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PT 5923 · MHT → PHL
departs 2:57 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
MHT is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
MHT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.09 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.