Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 824 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

QK 824 · DCA → YUL

departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 6:10 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at YUL that day

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YUL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 824 · DCA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?