Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA ROUGE · FLIGHT RV 1780 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

RV 1780 · IAH → YUL

departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 3:09 PM EDT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at YUL that day

↑ 10am departures from IAH are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YUL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.09 in

YUL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1780 · IAH → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?