Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 33
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
TK 33 · IST → IAH
departs 2:32 PM +03 · arrives 7:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±3 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IST (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.