Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 33
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
TK 33 · IST → IAH
departs 2:39 PM +03 · arrives 7:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 10/13 37%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IST (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.