Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1193 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 1193 · DCA → ORD

departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 8:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,133 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1193 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?