Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1259 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 1259 · SFO → IAH

departs 10:50 AM PT · arrives 4:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1259 · SFO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?