Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1259 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1259 · SFO → IAH

departs 10:50 AM PT · arrives 4:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1259 · SFO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?