Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 235 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 235 · IAH → DCA

departs 5:04 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 5pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

DCA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 235 · IAH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?