Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 2401 · CID → ORD

departs 7:52 AM CT · arrives 9:11 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CID

Weather at each end

CID (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.13 in

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2401 · CID → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?