Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 2401 · CID → ORD

departs 7:49 AM CT · arrives 9:04 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from CID are usually not late

Weather at each end

CID (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2401 · CID → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?