UA 2470 · DEN → MSP

departs 3:42 PM MT · arrives 6:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MSP (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2470 · DEN → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?