Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 382 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 382 · DCA → IAH

departs 12:59 PM ET · arrives 3:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 12pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 382 · DCA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?