UA 654 · IAH → DCA

departs 11:55 AM CT · arrives 4:03 PM ET

Your aircraft is N24729 (B737), coming in as UA 2460 from MSP: landed 10:16 AM CT.

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

DCA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 654 · IAH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?