UP 204 · FLL → NAS

departs 1:53 PM ET · arrives 2:58 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at NAS more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NAS?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at NAS

↑ 1pm departures from FLL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into NAS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

NAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UP 204 · FLL → NAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to NAS?