Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1201
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1201 · ATL → DCA
departs 7:13 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 37%
Sat 10/17 5%
Sun 10/18 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.