Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1274 · DAL → DCA
departs 8:13 PM CT · arrives 12:03 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.