Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1409 · LAS → STL
departs 6:56 PM PT · arrives 12:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 27%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.