Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1409 · LAS → STL
departs 6:51 PM PT · arrives 12:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 11%
Mon 10/19 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.79 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.