Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1498 · DCA → MCI
departs 3:43 PM ET · arrives 5:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 41%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15 38%
Fri 10/16 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.