Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1638 · DEN → LAS
departs 4:33 PM MT · arrives 5:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 56%
Thu 10/15 40%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±10 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.