Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1638 · DEN → LAS
departs 4:31 PM MT · arrives 5:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 10/13 24%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 40%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.43 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.