Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1641 · AUA → MCO
departs 3:08 PM AST · arrives 6:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave AUA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
AUA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.