Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1641 · AUA → MCO
departs 3:04 PM AST · arrives 6:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave AUA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUA
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.