Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1760
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1760 · DEN → SBA
departs 8:38 PM MT · arrives 10:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 56%
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.