Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1760
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1760 · DEN → SBA
departs 8:36 PM MT · arrives 10:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Tue 10/13 37%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.24 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.