Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2031
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2031 · HOU → DCA
departs 2:11 PM CT · arrives 6:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 27%
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.