Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2164 · BNA → BOS
departs 1:18 PM CT · arrives 4:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±1 pts
+24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.