Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 2534 · LGA → DEN
departs 4:18 PM ET · arrives 6:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 43%
Thu 10/15 54%
Fri 10/16 56%
Sat 10/17 29%
Sun 10/18 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.