Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2534 · LGA → DEN
departs 4:14 PM ET · arrives 6:06 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Tue 10/13 39%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 54%
Fri 10/16 56%
Sat 10/17 29%
Sun 10/18 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
40%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.