Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 385
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 385 · ABQ → PHX
departs 12:33 PM MT · arrives 12:53 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
ABQ is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at ABQ that day
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.