Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 385
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 385 · ABQ → PHX
departs 12:31 PM MT · arrives 12:53 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
ABQ is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.