Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 4234 · BWI → SAN
departs 6:53 PM ET · arrives 9:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 37%
Sat 10/17 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.