Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4234 · BWI → SAN
departs 6:51 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 37%
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.