Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 430 · LGA → DEN
departs 2:08 PM ET · arrives 4:11 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 50%
Thu 10/15 38%
Fri 10/16 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.