Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4401 SCHEDULED

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

WN 4401 · STL → PHL

departs 6:43 PM CT · arrives 10:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from STL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4401 · STL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?