Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4401 · STL → PHL
departs 6:41 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sun 10/18 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.59 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.