Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 4418 · DAL → LGA
departs 12:38 PM CT · arrives 4:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 7%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at DAL that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.