Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4418 · DAL → LGA
departs 12:35 PM CT · arrives 4:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13 33%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 7%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.